Monday 12 August 2013

Premier League Predictions - Part 1

So pre-season is coming to its end, clubs come back to England (or Wales), players gel, tactics get finalised, and Newcastle fans get worried that Joe Kinnear hasn’t spent any money. I am now going to look at each team in the coming Premier League season, analyse their tactics, signings, squads and assess where they might finish next May.

Arsenal 
Arsene Wenger has his recognised way of playing football and I doubt that that this will change. As for the transfer window, Yaya Sanogo came in for nothing from France, while Arsenal missed out on the Napoli-bound Gonzalo Higuain. The Luis Suarez saga is ongoing, but Liverpool resolutely believe that he will not be sold. Gaps still exist in the Arsenal squad: Squillaci gone, Djourou on loan in Germany and Vermaelen’s form in a trough, a new centre-back wouldn't go amiss - maybe a 'Jagielka-type' would do them best. As for next season, with the squad the way it is, I could only see Arsenal scraping 3rd place, but they can always contend in a domestic cup.

Aston Villa 
Last season, Paul Lambert’s Villa side was young and energetic, but became too reliant on Weimann, Agbonlahor, and Benteke. With the signings made - Leandro Bacuna, Niklas Helenius, Jores Okore, Antonio Luna, Aleksandar Tonev and Jed Steer - Lambert will hope that the new boys will help Villa steer clear of a relegation scrap, despite being unproven in the Premier League. This young team promises a lot, but will it deliver? We’ll wait and see, but they have the potential to stay up safely. I predict a 15th finish, with Benteke as top scorer.

Cardiff City 
Dominant in the Championship last season under the talisman-ship of Craig Bellamy, Cardiff City will be looking to stay in the top flight for longer than 12 months. Malky Makay is an ex-Premier League centre-back who likes to vary the way his teams play - the long-ball game is likely to be prominent in the last 15 minutes of their matches. Like Aston Villa, their new signings have little or no Premier League experience: striker Andreas Cornelius cost them £7.5mln. Their squad has a back-bone of players who have plied their trade in the Championship. Nevertheless, they have shown qualities in recent domestic cup competitions. Drawing on these experiences will help them reach 17th place, but it may be tight. Final day drama anyone?

Chelsea 
Jose Mourinho isn’t known to manage teams with a 'beautiful' style of play, but he’s a winner. He's added to the squad: the £18million purchase of Andre Schürrle has been the highlight. Although Jose's spending in his first spell didn't always live up to the price tag: players like Mateja Kezman never lived up to their potential in West London. I worry that the ageing squad that played an integral role in Mourinho's first spell at the club will find it difficult to compete consistently across the season. Many of Chelsea's younger players have been loaned out, making it difficult for Jose to rotate his squad. Back-room friction between Mourinho and his seniors cannot be ruled out either - remember what happened last time! Nevertheless, Mourinho is shrewd and knows how his club works, unlike either of the new managers at City or United. For this reason, Chelsea are my favourites for the league title.

Crystal Palace 
Ian Hollaway will certainly amuse us all over the coming months with his media interactions. He pocketed £60million of play-off winnings for the club last season, a vast change in fortunes for a team that were about to drop into League 1 two summers ago. With these funds, Holloway has brought in new faces: Stephen Dobbie and Kevin Phillips are now permanent fixtures at Selhurst Park, both knowing Holloway well, having worked with each other at Blackpool and on loan at Palace last season; Jose Campaña might be unproven, but Jerome Thomas is an experienced player who would be a key link should Palace stay up; Dwight Gayle, from Peterborough, was definitely one for the future. However I don’t think they’ll stay up this season. Last season Wilfried Zaha and Glenn Murray were integral to Palace's promotion effort, but with Zaha gone and Murray likely to miss most of the season with a knee injury, Palace are likely to be missing fire power at the front. I think this Palace side will finish 19th and hence, be relegated.

Everton 
Roberto Martinez might have been relegated with Wigan last season, but he won the F.A. Cup! And three of the players signed - Joel Robles,Arouna Koné and Antolin Alcaraz - all played in the Wembley final. Loan youngster Gerard Deulofeu is a talent that has come to England to improve. The advantage Martinez has here is that with Jagielka, Distin and Heitinga, he has ‘Premier League’ defenders. By bringing in Joel, Tim Howard will have to perform and a look to avoid some of his more tentative displays from last season. The squad as a whole, however, is still a small one. But the young players who got a chance towards the end of last season, Ross Barkley and Bryan Oviedo, are likely to get more of a chance this year. I predict a 6th place finish for the Blues, just missing out on Europe.

Fulham 
Fulham last season had a relatively torrid time, had it not been for Berbatov staying fit they would’ve been relegated. This summer, defenders Fernando Amorebieta and Sasha Riether, goalkeeper Maarten Stekelenburg and midfielder Derek Boateng, have all added depth. Up front, Berbatov is likely to be vital to Fulham's efforts, aided by the younger and more mobile Rodallega and Ruiz. This Fulham side will probably finish around 9th this season. This is a key season for Matin Jol; with new owners at Craven Cottage, a poor run of performances may end the Dutchman's reign at the club.

Hull City 
Steve Bruce’s Tigers were promoted on the last day of the Championship season, at the expense of Watford. This summer, the Egyptian money invested in the club has brought in Curtis Davies, George Boyd, Manor Figueroa, Allan McGregor, Steve Harper, Ahmed Elmohamady, Danny Graham (loan) and Yannick Sagbo. Having seen the club in last seasons F.A. Cup against League One Leyton Orient, I am concerned for the prospects of the newly christened "Hull City Tigers". Fielding a nearly full strength team, Hull only scraped a 2-1 win after extra time. Can they up their game and compete in the Premier League this season? I'm not so sure. I foresee the Premier League taming the tigers to mere kittens and predict a 20th place finish for the club. Nevertheless, Steve Bruce does have experience in the Premier League and some savvy management may prove me wrong!

Liverpool 
Brendan Rodgers has taken a big risk selling Andy Carroll, Jonjo Shelvey and loaning out Suso. Nevetheless, Rogers has brought in some very good players: Simon Mignolet is a top Premier League ‘keeper; Kolo Toure is one of Arsenal’s Invincables; while Luis Alberto and Iago Aspas have played in Spain, sharing the Tiki-Taka footballing ideal of Rogers. With Luis Suarez unable to pledge his allegiance to the Reds, Daniel Sturridge will have an important goalscoring role alongside Fabio Borini, who will aim to avoid the injuries that plagued his 2012-13 season. I think that the Reds will finish 7th in the league, just behind Everton.

Manchester City 
Despite losing Carlos Tevez for £12million to Juventus, the unbelievably rich owners at City have splashed out nearly £100million on Fernandinho, Jesus Navas, Alvaro Negredo and Stevan Jovetić. These are all very attacking signings, but does Pellegrini think that he can buy forwards without strengthening his defence? At times last season, the City defence was abysmal - an injury to Kompany highlighted the City weakness. Under new leadership, the City squad may struggle to gel. Unless, Pellegrini strengthens his back-four, cracks may show again at the Etihad - cracks that were evident the 3-1 defeat of City by Arsenal last Saturday in Helsinki. For these reasons, I predict that City will finish 3rd, failing to strongly contend for the title, though safely qualifying for Europe.

Check back soon for my predictions for the remaining Premier League clubs.


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